Which Blockbuster Matches Might Be Ahead At The US Open?
The round of 32 is set for the US Open. Out of all the matches that could still happen, which will be the ones not to miss?
After a packed Friday schedule, the first two rounds of the US Open are complete. Now that we know the matches for the third round, we can look forward to see how the tournament is likely to play out and see which matches could be the most watchable in the days to come.
Simulating 10,000 possible outcomes from the current state of the draw using GIG Player Ratings, we can see not only how probable each matchup is in each round but also give a score for how exciting that matchup is likely to be. To measure ‘excitement’ I am going to use the must-see stat I introduced in a recent post.
Men’s
Nick Kyrgios could have ample opportunity to build on his star power in the next few rounds. Monfils advancing to the third round also sets up some possible fist-pumping clashes in the next few rounds, including a Kyrgios-Monfils quarterfinal.
Daniil Medvedev dropped a set in the second round. The next few rounds could be the real test of whether he can turn his best-of-3 dominance into a career-best slam performance. The odds have him with a good chance of getting to the final and setting up for a number of paths for him to break the 11-slam streak of the Big 3 and prove that at least some of the new blood on tour are real contenders.
Player | Opponent | Must-See Score | How Likely? (%) |
---|---|---|---|
R32 | |||
Nick Kyrgios | Andrey Rublev | 802 | 100 |
Pablo Carreno-Busta | David Goffin | 790 | 100 |
Gael Monfils | Denis Shapovalov | 762 | 100 |
R16 | |||
Nick Kyrgios | Matteo Berrettini | 925 | 56 |
Roger Federer | David Goffin | 879 | 69 |
Diego Schwartzman | Alexander Zverev | 844 | 72 |
QF | |||
Novak Djokovic | Daniil Medvedev | 1180 | 90 |
Nick Kyrgios | Gael Monfils | 923 | 25 |
Matteo Berrettini | Gael Monfils | 905 | 31 |
SF | |||
Roger Federer | Novak Djokovic | 1397 | 67 |
Roger Federer | Daniil Medvedev | 1259 | 17 |
David Goffin | Daniil Medvedev | 931 | 1 |
F | |||
Rafael Nadal | Novak Djokovic | 1537 | 55 |
Roger Federer | Rafael Nadal | 1302 | 32 |
Rafael Nadal | Daniil Medvedev | 1116 | 8 |
Women’s
American fans will be looking to Madison Keys and Sofia Kenin to put them on the edge of their seats in the next round. Whichever of the two survives that battle is likely to be in the spotlight from that point on, as they are each among the top must-see prospects in the second week.
A final-worthy billing could come in the quarterfinal if Serena Williams and Ash Barty were to meet there. And the prospects are good for Bianca Andreescu to get the final against Serena Williams that she was denied in Toronto. If Andreescu gets to the final, expect her to make it an unmissable match for any number of opponents she could face.
Player | Opponent | Must-See Score | How Likely? (%) |
---|---|---|---|
R32 | |||
Sofia Kenin | Madison Keys | 886 | 100 |
Elina Svitolina | Dayana Yastremska | 762 | 100 |
Maria Sakkari | Ashleigh Barty | 712 | 100 |
R16 | |||
Madison Keys | Elina Svitolina | 865 | 33 |
Sofia Kenin | Elina Svitolina | 864 | 30 |
Karolina Pliskova | Johanna Konta | 837 | 82 |
QF | |||
Serena Williams | Ashleigh Barty | 1106 | 63 |
Madison Keys | Karolina Pliskova | 891 | 21 |
Sofia Kenin | Karolina Pliskova | 871 | 17 |
SF | |||
Karolina Pliskova | Ashleigh Barty | 996 | 18 |
Serena Williams | Karolina Pliskova | 981 | 21 |
Madison Keys | Ashleigh Barty | 875 | 6 |
F | |||
Karolina Pliskova | Bianca Andreescu | 1020 | 9 |
Bianca Andreescu | Ashleigh Barty | 995 | 14 |
Serena Williams | Bianca Andreescu | 981 | 19 |