Women's US Open Watchability Ratings

With the 2022 US Open set to be Serena Williams’s farewell event, all attention will be on the GOAT and the coda she ends her career with. If Williams does want to get into the second week, it is going to be a real challenge given the difficulty of her draw. And if the Wilson balls are flying as unusually this year as last, it could be another wild two weeks at Flushing Meadows. Here are some guesses at the matches that could be the toughest and most watchable in the first two rounds.

Watchability ratings combine the quality and competitiveness of match to give an overall ‘watchability’ score. The technical details can be found here. The figure below shows the breakdown of the expected quality and competitiveness of the first round and probable second round matches at the US Open, and the overall Watchabilty that these translate to.

The tables that follow order each round’s matches by their Watchability, helping fans to prioritize their watchlist for the coming days.

Figure 1. Distribution of Watchability Ratings for first round and probable second round matches.

First Round

player opponent quality competitiveness watchability
Karolina Muchova Ajla Tomljanovic 2049.6 96.5 1978
Paula Badosa Gibert Lesya Tsurenko 2052.9 94.9 1949
Taylor Townsend Katerina Siniakova 1945.5 97.2 1890
Mayar Sherif Marta Kostyuk 1948.2 95.8 1867
Emma Raducanu Alize Cornet 1991.9 93.7 1866
Laura Siegemund Sorana Cirstea 1924.4 96.3 1853
Xinyu Wang Diane Parry 1866.9 99.0 1848
Elise Mertens Irina-Camelia Begu 1949.1 94.1 1834
Magdalena Frech Rebecca Marino 1881.5 97.5 1834
Sofia Kenin Jule Niemeier 1923.2 94.8 1822
Tereza Martincova Kaia Kanepi 1913.4 95.1 1820
Marie Bouzkova Linda Noskova 2046.2 88.4 1808
Dalma Galfi Nuria Parrizas-Diaz 1829.3 98.0 1792
Aleksandra Krunic Elina Avanesyan 1870.3 94.6 1770
Lauren Davis Lucia Bronzetti 1857.4 95.2 1768
Bernarda Pera Anhelina Kalinina 1916.0 91.5 1754
Daria Saville Elena Gabriela Ruse 1870.6 91.1 1703
Garbine Muguruza Clara Tauson 2024.8 83.6 1692
Karolina Pliskova Magda Linette 2018.9 83.8 1692
Sara Sorribes Tormo Viktoria Kuzmova 1901.0 87.4 1661
Maria Sakkari Tatjana Maria 1967.2 83.6 1645
Cristina Bucsa Kaja Juvan 1951.7 81.7 1595
Viktorija Golubic Jessica Pegula 1995.2 79.7 1590
Maryna Zanevska Coco Vandeweghe 1828.6 86.2 1577
Barbora Krejcikova Fernanda Contreras Gomez 1858.5 84.7 1575
Maria Camila Osorio Serrano Ann Li 1865.3 84.2 1571
Yulia Putintseva Amanda Anisimova 1997.3 78.4 1566
Leolia Jeanjean Cori Gauff 2044.5 75.2 1538
Danielle Rose Collins Naomi Osaka 2147.9 71.6 1538
Sloane Stephens Greetje Minnen 1860.8 82.3 1531
Alison Van Uytvanck Venus Williams 1876.8 80.1 1502
Harmony Tan Bianca Vanessa Andreescu 1920.5 77.5 1488
Jelena Ostapenko Qinwen Zheng 2014.2 73.0 1470
Shelby Rogers Arantxa Rus 1892.3 75.1 1422
Tamara Zidansek Elizabeth Mandlik 1828.7 77.6 1419
Caroline Garcia Kamilla Rakhimova 2088.6 67.8 1417
Victoria Azarenka Ashlyn Krueger 2068.7 68.1 1408
Erika Andreeva Petra Kvitova 2042.8 68.8 1405
Beatriz Haddad Maia Ana Konjuh 1964.1 71.4 1402
Jaimee Fourlis Yue Yuan 1722.7 81.3 1401
Jil Teichmann Shuai Zhang 1975.4 70.0 1382
Varvara Gracheva Petra Martic 1855.7 73.4 1362
Anna Schmiedlova Nadia Podoroska 1790.7 75.6 1353
Danka Kovinic Serena Williams 2010.7 66.8 1343
Donna Vekic Veronika Kudermetova 2043.6 64.5 1318
Liudmila Samsonova Sara Bejlek 2066.4 63.8 1317
Belinda Bencic Andrea Petkovic 1995.6 65.1 1299
Anna Bondar Camila Giorgi 1854.2 69.2 1282
Aliaksandra Sasnovich Elisabetta Cocciaretto 2040.8 61.1 1248
Claire Liu Anastasia Potapova 1965.8 63.4 1246
Ons Jabeur Madison Brengle 2026.4 60.8 1232
Daria Snigur Simona Halep 2086.9 57.9 1208
Madison Keys Dayana Yastremska 2037.1 58.8 1198
Rebecca Peterson Anna Kalinskaya 1980.6 60.0 1189
Oceane Dodin Leylah Annie Fernandez 1948.7 59.6 1161
Jasmine Paolini Iga Swiatek 2031.4 56.9 1156
Elena Rybakina Clara Burel 1961.7 58.6 1150
Catherine Harrison Aryna Sabalenka 1979.3 56.9 1127
Harriet Dart Daria Kasatkina 2102.7 53.3 1120
Anett Kontaveit Jaqueline Cristian 1854.8 59.6 1105
Ekaterina Alexandrova Peyton Stearns 1959.2 56.3 1103
Martina Trevisan E. Rodina E. Rodina 1646.5 65.6 1081
X. Wang X. Wang Linda Fruhvirtova 1681.9 61.0 1025
Eleana Yu Alison Riske 1745.5 55.0 960

Most Probable Second Round

player opponent quality competitiveness watchability
Anastasia Potapova Jelena Ostapenko 2123.7 98.7 2097
Karolina Pliskova Marie Bouzkova 2082.3 98.5 2052
Anna Kalinskaya Caroline Garcia 2196.2 92.9 2039
Leylah Annie Fernandez Liudmila Samsonova 2184.8 88.4 1931
Sara Sorribes Tormo Shelby Rogers 1966.5 94.1 1850
Elina Avanesyan Barbora Krejcikova 1901.2 96.5 1835
Beatriz Haddad Maia Bianca Vanessa Andreescu 2041.1 89.8 1832
Alize Cornet Taylor Townsend 1984.7 91.6 1819
Serena Williams Anett Kontaveit 2099.6 86.0 1806
Alison Riske Maria Camila Osorio Serrano 1961.5 88.9 1743
Aliaksandra Sasnovich Jessica Pegula 2145.6 79.5 1706
Paula Badosa Gibert Petra Martic 2014.6 84.4 1701
Amanda Anisimova Sofia Kenin 2009.5 81.4 1635
Xinyu Wang Maria Sakkari 1948.4 79.0 1539
Cristina Bucsa Naomi Osaka 2139.1 69.9 1496
Laura Siegemund Belinda Bencic 2041.4 73.2 1494
Elena Rybakina Alison Van Uytvanck 2058.5 72.3 1488
Bernarda Pera Petra Kvitova 2057.8 71.6 1473
Marta Kostyuk Victoria Azarenka 2081.4 70.3 1464
Nadia Podoroska Shuai Zhang 1989.8 72.7 1447
Madison Keys Camila Giorgi 2109.7 68.2 1439
Elise Mertens Yue Yuan 1880.3 76.3 1435
Daria Saville Cori Gauff 2020.4 70.4 1422
Clara Tauson Linda Fruhvirtova 1974.0 72.0 1421
Tereza Martincova Aryna Sabalenka 2067.7 67.1 1387
Ons Jabeur Elizabeth Mandlik 2061.2 65.3 1346
Iga Swiatek Sloane Stephens 2091.3 62.9 1314
Martina Trevisan Ajla Tomljanovic 1927.3 67.5 1302
Veronika Kudermetova Coco Vandeweghe 2037.7 63.7 1298
Lauren Davis Ekaterina Alexandrova 2033.9 63.7 1296
Simona Halep Magdalena Frech 2095.3 58.6 1228
Dalma Galfi Daria Kasatkina 2116.8 53.8 1139